Weekly Briefing • October 12, 2026 • Issue #35
Hormuz Attacks Continued.
The Box Rate Still Fell.
Container rates eased this week, and the Strait of Hormuz did not get safer. Drewry's World Container Index, a composite of eight major east-west routes, fell 2 percent to $4,351 per forty-foot container on October 8. Over the same stretch, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations kept logging tanker attacks, including strikes on October 10 and 11. A lower box rate can change the freight line on a quote. It does not change the war-risk line, and it does not mean the strait is open for business as usual.
The duty clock that already had a date still has that date. November 9 is four weeks from today. The U.S. Trade Representative has not extended the Section 301 exclusions that expire that night. What it did publish, on October 7, is a correction to one statistical reporting number. An entry that uses the retired code can fail even though the product is still covered. The three decisions this week are whether to accept the lower lane rate, what to do with Gulf and Red Sea security on the invoice, and which exclusion filings to correct before November 9.
Issue #35. The common mistake this week would be to treat the Drewry composite as a single discount on every open quote, or to read a morning Brent dip as proof that Gulf surcharges are coming off. A lower spot rate is real only on the lane that fell and only after the forwarder requotes that sailing. Attacks through October 11 mean security-related lines are still showing on invoices. November 9 is unchanged; USTR only corrected a statistical reporting code for one exclusion family.
This Week's Briefing
The Attack Count Rose After Monday. A Cheaper Morning in Oil Was Not an All-Clear.
Last week the public count was four tanker strikes from October 1 to 4. That count was early. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the Royal Navy center that logs incidents for merchant shipping, said in its October 9 overview that it had verified 11 attacks that week, 10 of them in the Strait of Hormuz and one in the Arabian Gulf. Most of those ships reported only minor damage and continued. The week did not stop on October 9. On October 10 the master of an outbound tanker in the strait reported a port-side hit and a fire on board, crew safe. On October 11 another outbound tanker was struck in the strait, and UKMTO reclassified a report at Sohar anchorage in Oman as an attack after confirming a drone strike. Crew status at Sohar was still unknown when the update went out.
One of the October 5 strikes is now a crew-casualty case, not only a hull report. India's Ministry of External Affairs said 12 seafarers were injured on the Panama-flagged tanker On Peace after a projectile hit during a Hormuz transit. Eleven of the injured are Indian. Omani authorities evacuated them to Khasab for treatment. UKMTO warning 157-26 is the log entry for that outbound tanker. A separate October 7 report, north of Qatar, also recorded casualties. On October 5 an inbound tanker in the strait was hailed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and told to turn back or be targeted. The master turned back. That is an interdiction rather than a strike, and it belongs in the same security picture.
Oil did not break down on that news, and it also did not stay at the morning low. Early Monday, Brent was near $103. Reuters had it at $103.35 at 0037 GMT, and a Bloomberg report put the December contract at $102.93 later in the Singapore morning, with West Texas Intermediate near $90. By late morning in London, Reuters had Brent at $106.19 after further attacks, including another strike on Saudi Arabia's main airport. A separate closing report put the settle near $105.68. Last Monday the barrel was near $102. The dip did not hold. A bunker quote locked to the morning print will be stale by the afternoon.
Inland diesel is on a lag, and the lag is real. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's on-highway diesel average for the week of October 5 was $6.199 a gallon, down 18.3 cents from $6.382 the week before. Trucking fuel surcharges indexed to that average should ease on the next reset. Ocean bunker quotes that follow this week's Brent will not follow the diesel print down. UKMTO's October 9 overview still put observed Hormuz traffic about 75 percent below pre-conflict levels, with most broadcasting ships on the Iranian route, and said U.S. Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping facilitation counts were running about five to one above what AIS shows. A quiet AIS picture is not an empty strait. A busy facilitation count is not a safe one. Export volume and attack reports remain different measurements.
The Bottom Line: Reset trucking fuel surcharges to the $6.199 diesel print. Expect war-risk and emergency fuel to remain on Gulf and Red Sea quotes while UKMTO is still logging strikes, and reconfirm bunker against the full Monday session rather than the early $103 tick.
The Composite Fell 2 Percent. This Time Both U.S. Coasts Fell With It.
Last week's composite dipped 1 percent while Shanghai–New York rose. This week's print is simpler, and it is still not one number for every booking. On October 8 the World Container Index fell 2 percent to $4,351 per forty-foot container. Drewry tied the move to weaker demand during China's Golden Week, October 1 to 7. Shanghai–Los Angeles fell 3 percent to $7,624. Shanghai–New York fell 2 percent to $10,220. Shanghai–Rotterdam fell 2 percent to $3,337, a thirteenth straight weekly decline. Shanghai–Genoa was unchanged at $3,696. A U.S. importer on either coast saw a lower lane rate. A Genoa importer did not.
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange composite, did not confirm the dollar move. It was essentially flat on October 9, at 3,664.11, up 1.81 points from the prior reading. A flat index level and a lower dollar composite can both be true. Neither one is your all-in. Carriers are talking about higher freight-all-kinds rates on Asia–Europe in the second half of October. Drewry says it is not clear those increases will stick, and it named a faster-than-expected return to Suez as the main threat to that rate support.
Capacity is coming back unevenly, which is why the sailing matters more than the average. Drewry's capacity note for the October 8 assessment counted four Transpacific blank sailings next week, down from eleven this week, and six Asia–Europe blanks next week, up from five. Its October 9 cancelled-sailings tracker put 34 blanks on the major east-west trades from the week of October 12 through the week of November 9, about a 5 percent cancellation rate. Pacific space is loosening as the holiday ends. Europe is not on the same path. The named Suez voyages from last week are still named voyages: Premier Alliance's ONE Continuity remains on a Laem Chabang window of about October 17 to 19, and Maersk's Umm Qarn is still due to leave Tanjung Pelepas on October 27 on the AE12, subject to a security review. The Joint Maritime Information Center's October 8 note kept the southern Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, and Gulf of Aden at substantial threat. UKMTO assessed the October 4 explosions near a tanker south of Al Mukha as spillover from fighting on land, not a deliberate attack on the ship. That is not a reason to drop the Cape plan.
Panama is a separate decision, and the date that matters is this week. Advisory A-36-2026 is unchanged: Neopanamax draft stays at 49.0 feet, and a tenth Neopanamax slot, taking the canal to 33 daily transits, applies to booking dates from October 15. A reservation is still the only way the canal says it will guarantee a transit date.
The Bottom Line: Ask the forwarder to requote the lane you can still make, and accept the lower number only if it is the all-in on that ship. Keep the Cape timing on any Asia–Europe booking that is not confirmed on ONE Continuity or Umm Qarn, and book the Panama slot if the transit date is on or after October 15.
Golden Week Eased Ocean Spot. Air Freight Printed Higher.
A buyer who missed a Golden Week sailing and asks to fly the order is looking at a tighter air market, not a cheaper one. The TAC Index Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00), the global composite used as the broad air-cargo rate tape, rose 5.0 percent in the week to October 5, to 2,606. That is 25.5 percent above a year earlier. TAC's October 8 note said the jump arrived as China went into the holiday, and that rates had been firm through September before the week turned sharper. No later weekly BAI00 print was out this morning. Treat 2,606 as the latest available reading, not as a figure from today.
Fuel explains the floor under that index better than the holiday alone. TAC, citing the IATA jet-fuel monitor, said average jet fuel was up 108 percent year over year by October 2. Air rates have risen, and they have not risen as fast as the fuel. The gap is why a soft ocean index does not make air the bargain alternative. TAC also had Hong Kong outbound up about 3 percent on the week, still a little over 22 percent above last year. A global jump and a smaller move on one origin can both be true. Price the origin you actually use.
Ocean spot on the big east-west lanes just got a Golden Week discount that may not last past the next general rate attempt. Air is heading into the fourth-quarter peak with fuel more than double last year, so a buyer who missed a sailing and asks to upgrade to air is looking at a higher lane quote, not a cheaper substitute for a 2 percent drop in the World Container Index.
The Action: If a buyer asks to upgrade a late order to air, price the current air quote and the fuel surcharge on that lane before you agree. Keep routine freight on the ocean sailing you can still book.
The November 9 Exclusion Deadline Is Unchanged. USTR Corrected One Statistical Code.
The exclusion deadline is closer, and it is the same deadline. About 178 Section 301 exclusions on Chinese goods, claimed under headings 9903.88.69 and 9903.88.70, still expire at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on November 9. So does the suspension of extra port fees on China-linked vessels. The U.S. Trade Representative has not issued an extension. The broader U.S.–China truce, which runs to January 10, 2027, is a separate agreement and does not cover either item. Goods entered on November 10 without an extension lose the exclusion and owe the additional Section 301 duty that the exclusion had taken off.
What changed this week is a filing detail, and it can stop an entry that is otherwise still eligible. On October 7, USTR published a conforming amendment, Federal Register 2026-20511, to U.S. note 20(vvv)(i)(20). After the words "January 27, 2022," the note now says the prior statistical reporting number runs through June 30, 2026, and that statistical reporting number 8479.90.9591 applies from July 1, 2026. The International Trade Commission changed a set of ten-digit codes on July 1. USTR had already conformed four affected exclusions on September 2. This notice conforms the fifth. The product coverage is meant to stay the same. The amendment does not extend the November 9 expiry. Customs and Border Protection said it will issue entry instructions. Until those instructions are in the broker's software, a filing on the retired statistical number is how a covered line gets rejected.
The Board of Trade lists are where they were on October 5. No implementation notice, rate, or start date landed this week. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's October 1 statement still stands: there is no timeline, and any change still needs public notice and a legal process. Pricing a quote as if those lists were in force is still a discount that has not been granted. Commerce's decision on whether to open the corrugated die-cut box investigation remains due October 19. Opening an investigation is not a duty.
The Action: Have the broker update any open entry under note 20(vvv)(i)(20) to statistical reporting number 8479.90.9591 if the goods were entered on or after July 1 and the filing still shows the pre-July 1 code. Separately, for every SKU that loses its exclusion on November 9, decide this week whether to pull the shipment forward, bond the difference, or absorb the duty.
Keep Separate Cost Lines on the Freight Bill
Each of this week's stories had one number that looked like good news: a lower Drewry composite, a morning Brent dip, a flat Shanghai Containerized Freight Index beside falling lane dollars, and diesel easing to $6.199. Each was true, and none rewrote every line on the landed-cost model. Lane spot fell on several U.S. imports while Genoa did not move. Oil dipped and then rebounded while UKMTO kept logging strikes. The November 9 exclusion clock stayed fixed while USTR fixed a ten-digit code.
In practice, that shows up as questions from finance, sales, and buyers: why the total freight bill did not fall 2 percent with the index, why a quote still carries Gulf-related surcharges after Brent touched $103, or whether a customer can assume tariff relief from a Board of Trade list that still has no rate. Keeping fuel, lane rate, security surcharges, duty, and air on separate lines makes those conversations short, because each line can be tied to its own evidence. Change a cost line only when the evidence for that line changes.
💡 Palletizr Tip of the Week
Update the Load Plan When the Quote Changes
This week changed several lines on the freight bill, but not all of them together. The carton file can stay as-is while you refresh the numbers that actually moved.
- Ask for the all-in on the vessel you can still book. With Transpacific blanks easing, get the forwarder's quote for that sailing and type it onto the saved load plan so cost per carton updates before sales promises a lower delivered cost.
- Answer finance with separate lines. When someone asks why freight did not move with oil or with the composite index, show fuel, lane rate, security surcharges, and duty as separate rows in the landed-cost model rather than one blended percent.
- Fix the statistical code and model November 9. Have the broker confirm note 20(vvv)(i)(20) entries since July 1 use statistical reporting number 8479.90.9591, and build a second load plan at the higher duty for any SKU that still relies on a November 9 exclusion.
📦 Palletizr Calculator · iPhone
Fit the cargo. Price the options. Book the winner.
Enter carton sizes and quantities, then optimize. With an ocean rate, Palletizr prices each packing plan so you can book the one that fits and costs less. Still waiting on a quote? Optimize for space first and add the rate when it lands.
Price the options
Type the all-in ocean rate, run optimize, and compare loads by utilization and cost per carton before you book.
Fit the cargo
No rate yet? Optimize for space. See what fits, which container wins, and keep the 3D plan ready to price.
- Fit the cargo — dims, weight, quantity
- Price the options — add your ocean rate, or skip it
- Book the winner — utilization, cost, 3D preview
The native iPhone app is still in App Review. Run the same three steps on app.palletizr.com today; one account carries over when the App Store build goes live.
What to Watch, by Date
Daily: the UKMTO incident log for Hormuz, the Arabian Gulf, and the Gulf of Aden, which is the clearest signal of whether war-risk pricing can ease. October 15: Panama's tenth Neopanamax slot and 33-transit daily cap apply to booking dates from this day, under the same 49-foot draft. October 17 to 19: ONE Continuity is on a Laem Chabang window for a Suez routing; the carrier has not collapsed that window to a single hour, and the voyage is not a network reopening. October 19: Commerce decides whether to open the corrugated-box investigation. Opening a case is not a cash deposit. October 27: Umm Qarn is due to leave Tanjung Pelepas on the AE12 Suez routing, still subject to a security review. November 9, 11:59 p.m. Eastern: the Section 301 China exclusions and the China-linked vessel-fee suspension expire unless USTR extends them. January 10, 2027: the broader U.S.–China truce expires, separate from November 9.
The Palletizr Logistics Digest is published weekly. For container loading that respects the quote you actually booked, visit palletizr.com.