Weekly Briefing • May 4, 2026 • Issue #12
Two Thousand Ships Stranded.
Rates Fell — Surcharges Did Not.
Dual blockades at the Strait of Hormuz left roughly two thousand commercial vessels stranded or rerouted. ING raised its Brent crude forecast as supply anxiety persisted. Houthis resumed Red Sea attacks after a lull. Drewry's World Container Index fell for a third consecutive week — but carrier bunker adjustment and war-risk surcharges kept all-in costs elevated on most lanes.
Issue #12. A falling index and rising landed cost can coexist when surcharge layers stack on top of a declining base rate. Procurement teams need both numbers — spot print and all-in quote — in the same brief.
This Week's Briefing
Dual Blockades, Two Thousand Ships
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely disrupted under dual blockade conditions. Industry estimates put roughly two thousand vessels stranded inside the Gulf or waiting outside chokepoint entry points. Automatic identification system spoofing made precise counts provisional — the directional signal was clear even if the exact number was not.
Do not schedule Gulf-origin sailings on pre-crisis transit times. Confirm each booking's routing and insurance status independently.
ING Raised Brent Forecasts
ING lifted its Brent crude price forecast as Hormuz disruption and Red Sea security concerns kept supply risk elevated. Fuel surcharges on ocean and air lanes continued tracking the upward revision even as base container indices declined.
Reprice bunker-sensitive surcharges against the revised curve — not last month's fuel table.
Houthis Resurged in the Red Sea
Houthi forces resumed anti-ship activity in the Red Sea after a period of reduced attacks. MARAD advisory 2026-006 remained active. Cape of Good Hope routing added days and cost on Asia–Europe services.
Confirm war-risk coverage and transit time buffers on every Red Sea-adjacent lane — a lull is not a clearance.
Third Weekly WCI Decline — Surcharges Stack
Drewry's World Container Index fell for a third consecutive week. Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York both declined on the spot print. Carrier bunker adjustment, peak-season, and war-risk surcharge layers continued landing on top of the lower base — all-in quotes on many lanes did not move in the same direction as the index.
Separate base ocean rate from surcharge stack in every procurement comparison. The index headline understates landed cost.
CAPE Filings Accelerated
Importers continued uploading IEEPA refund declarations through CAPE as the portal processed Phase 1 and Phase 2 entries. Disbursement timing remained the open question — filing volume rose ahead of expected ACH payments.
Complete Phase 2 on approved entries before chasing new tariff headlines. Refund cash and rate relief are separate workflows.
💡 Palletizr Tip of the Week
Index Down, Invoice Up
- WCI decline is the spot print — not your all-in landed cost.
- Surcharge stack — model bunker, war-risk, and peak-season layers separately from base ocean.
- Two thousand ships — extend transit buffers on Gulf programs regardless of what the index did this week.
📦 Palletizr Calculator · iPhone
Fit the cargo. Price the options. Book the winner.
Enter carton sizes and quantities, then optimize. With an ocean rate, Palletizr prices each packing plan so you can book the one that fits and costs less. Still waiting on a quote? Optimize for space first and add the rate when it lands.
Price the options
Type the all-in ocean rate, run optimize, and compare loads by utilization and cost per carton before you book.
Fit the cargo
No rate yet? Optimize for space. See what fits, which container wins, and keep the 3D plan ready to price.
- Fit the cargo — dims, weight, quantity
- Price the options — add your ocean rate, or skip it
- Book the winner — utilization, cost, 3D preview
On iPhone, the same three steps take under a minute: cartons, container, 3D results. Same account as web.
What to Watch, by Date
May: carrier surcharge filings continuing to land on top of declining spot indices. CAPE: Phase 2 completion ahead of expected ACH disbursements. Red Sea: MARAD advisory 2026-006 — confirm routing weekly until Houthis signal sustained stand-down.
The Palletizr Logistics Digest is published weekly. For container loading that respects the quote you actually booked, visit palletizr.com.